{"id":1410,"date":"2025-07-31T06:31:47","date_gmt":"2025-07-31T06:31:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/baek.nl\/?p=1410"},"modified":"2026-08-28T07:00:32","modified_gmt":"2026-08-28T07:00:32","slug":"how-predictive-policing-works-and-where-the-limit-lies","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/baek.nl\/en_en\/hoe-predictive-policing-werkt-en-waar-de-grens-ligt\/","title":{"rendered":"How predictive policing works and where the line is drawn"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Predictive policing<\/strong>&nbsp;is a technology-driven approach that uses algorithms and big data to predict and prevent crime. Although it sounds like an efficient way to enhance security, it also raises fundamental questions about privacy, discrimination and feasibility. In this blog, we delve into how predictive policing works, how it is applied in the Netherlands, and where the ethical and legal boundaries lie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What is predictive policing?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Predictive policing uses historical data, such as crime figures, location information and even personal characteristics, to predict&nbsp;<strong>where<\/strong>&nbsp;en&nbsp;<strong>when<\/strong>&nbsp;crime is likely to occur. There are two main forms:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Location-based forecasts<\/strong>such as the Dutch CAS system (Crime Anticipation System), which identifies risk areas based on previous incidents.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Personalised predictions<\/strong>where individuals are analysed based on risk factors such as previous arrests, behavioural patterns or even medical records.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How does it work in the Netherlands?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Since 2014, the Dutch police have been experimenting with predictive policing, including the CAS system and the controversial&nbsp;<strong>Sensing Project<\/strong>&nbsp;in Roermond. In this latest project, vehicles were scored based on characteristics such as country of origin and destination, which led to&nbsp;<strong>mass surveillance and ethnic profiling<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The ethical and legal boundaries<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Although predictive policing has potential, there are serious objections:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">1.&nbsp;<strong>Privacy and data use<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The processing of sensitive personal data, such as ethnicity or medical history, is at odds with privacy legislation. The GDPR (General Data Protection Regulation) offers protection, but is not always sufficient for group-targeted analyses<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2.&nbsp;<strong>Discrimination and bias<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Algorithms are not neutral. They are fed by data that are often already biased. This can lead to&nbsp;<strong>discriminatory risk profiles<\/strong>, especially for vulnerable groups who are overrepresented in police data<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">3.&nbsp;<strong>Transparency and accountability<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Many AI systems are self-learning and opaque. It is often not clear&nbsp;<strong>why<\/strong>&nbsp;a system makes a certain prediction. This makes it difficult to audit or challenge decisions<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">4.&nbsp;<strong>Feasibility<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Even if a system identifies dozens of individuals at risk, it is practically impossible to respond to that effectively. Police capacity and operational feasibility are often overlooked<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What does the law say?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Netherlands does not yet have specific legislation for predictive policing. However, organisations such as Amnesty International are calling for:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>One\u00a0<strong>binding human rights test<\/strong>\u00a0when using algorithms.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>One\u00a0<strong>ban on the use of ethnicity and nationality<\/strong>\u00a0in risk profiles.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>One\u00a0<strong>independent algorithm regulator<\/strong>\u00a0with binding advice.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Conclusion: Where does one draw the line?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Predictive policing can contribute to a safer society, but only if it&nbsp;<strong>transparent, accountable and people-centred<\/strong>&nbsp;is deployed. The line is drawn where technology begins to undermine the rights and dignity of citizens. It is up to policymakers, researchers and citizens to strictly guard that line.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Predictive policing&nbsp;is een technologiegedreven aanpak waarbij algoritmes en big data worden ingezet om criminaliteit te voorspellen en te voorkomen. Hoewel het klinkt als een effici\u00ebnte manier om veiligheid te vergroten, roept het ook fundamentele vragen op over privacy, discriminatie en uitvoerbaarheid. In deze blog duiken we in hoe predictive policing werkt, hoe het in Nederland [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":1188,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"wds_primary_category":14,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1410","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-beveiliging"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/baek.nl\/en_en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1410","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/baek.nl\/en_en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/baek.nl\/en_en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baek.nl\/en_en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baek.nl\/en_en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1410"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/baek.nl\/en_en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1410\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baek.nl\/en_en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1188"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/baek.nl\/en_en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1410"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baek.nl\/en_en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1410"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baek.nl\/en_en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1410"}],"curies":[{"name":"well played","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}